ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN WITHOUT US SUPPORT AND IRAN RESPONDS – WHAT COMES NEXT?
On June 12, 2025, Israel launched a broad attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites, killing at least three high level officers and setting the stage for all-out war between the two Middle Eastern adversaries. Targets included at least six leading nuclear scientists and four senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
US President Donald Trump says he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the attacks occurred and that the US was “well informed” before and during the operation. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that US military assets were not directly involved in the attack.
Less than 24 hours later, Iran responded to the Israeli attack by launching a counterattack with more than 100 ballistic missiles that reportedly hit Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. At this point, no deaths have been reported, but property has been damaged.
Iran Misses US Nuke Deal Deadline
Trump called the Israeli attack “excellent” and that more attacks should be anticipated. Trump implied that Israel’s attack was in response to Iran failing to reach an agreement with the US on a new nuclear deal within Trump’s established 60-day deadline. The attack came on day 61.
"I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal," Trump wrote. "I told them, in the strongest of words, to 'just do it,' but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done.
I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come - And they know how to use it."
Iranian Response
Just hours after the attack, Israeli sources reported that an Iranian drone had set off an attack warning alarm in northern Israel, and an Israeli military official said that Iran had launched 100 drones at Israel with most being intercepted. Iranian officials denied having launched a counterattack by drone, but did launch an attack with 100 ballistic missiles against Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Iranian officials are not convinced that the USA did not support Israel’s attack and tasked the Swiss Ambassador in Tehran – the US doesn’t have diplomatic personnel there – to deliver a message.
“It is unthinkable that the Zionist regime’s aggressive actions against Iran were carried out without cooperation, coordination, and at least a green light from the US, and in this regard, the US must be held accountable for its illegal behavior in this regard,” the Iranian representative told Nadine Lozano, the Swiss Ambassador to Tehran, according to a statement published on state run IRNA.
International Response
Nations from across the globe have largely condemned Israel’s attack and urged both sides to show restraint to avoid intensifying the conflict.
However, some nations took a different perspective.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while urging restraint, defended Israel’s right to defend itself and condemned Iran’s “indiscriminate drone attack” in response to the Israeli attack.
Iran and Israel’s Next Moves
Sina Toossi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said in a statement to CNN that, “A large-scale retaliation (by Iran), likely involving drone and missile strikes into Israeli territory, appears imminent.”
Toossi added that, “rather than crippling Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, Israel’s escalation risks fueling nationalist sentiment, solidifying internal cohesion and triggering a dangerous cycle of retaliation, all while increasing the likelihood of American entanglement.”
This assessment is consistent with previous military exchanges between the two adversaries when back and forth military strikes, while raising concerns, never led to full-blown warfare.
Previous Israel-Iran Skirmishes
Iran and Israel have been engaged in a covert conflict for years. Iran has utilized a network of militant groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis to target Israeli interests.
In response, Israel has reportedly carried out assassinations of high-ranking Iranian officials and nuclear scientists and launched cyberattacks against Iran. Tensions escalated further following the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel.
Following the attack, Iran’s "Axis of Resistance," notably Hezbollah and the Houthis, launched assaults on Israel and Red Sea shipping. This increase in hostilities set off a series of small exchanges.
- 1 April 2024: Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 16 people, including multiple Iranian officers and the commander of the Quds Force, one of five branches of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps specializing in unconventional warfare and military intelligence operations.
- 13 April 2024: Iran and its proxies struck Israel, targeting military bases. Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets at an Israeli army base in the Golan Heights and utilized a drone to target Israel.
- 19 April 2024: Israel struck an air defense facility in Isfahan, Iran in retaliation. The strikes were limited and de-escalated tensions.
- 31 July 2024: Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, Tehran. Iran vowed to retaliate.
- 17 September 2024: Israel planned to return civilians displaced by Hezbollah back to their homes in northern Israel. Over the next two days, thousands of mobile phones, pagers, and walkie-talkies exploded across Lebanon and Syria as part of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. The attack killed 42 people.
- 22 September 2024: Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities and towns.
- 23 September 2024: Israel killed two of Hezbollah’s top commanders in a town south of Beirut and began a series of strikes in southern Lebanon.
- 27 September 2024: An Israeli airstrike killed Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah. The attack also killed the Commander of Hezbollah's Southern Front and the deputy commander of the IRGC and commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon.
- 1 October 2024: In response, Iran executed the largest attack of the 2024 conflict when it launched approximately 180 ballistic missiles. Israel said it had shot down most of the missiles and there had been no harm to its Air Force's capabilities. The US Navy and Jordan also reported intercepting missiles.
What is the Role of the US?
On Truth Social on Friday, President Trump called on Iranian leadership to make a “deal,” and warned of “even more brutal” attacks if this didn’t happen.
“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.” Trump said.
Trump told CNN on Friday that the Israeli strikes were a “very successful attack.” The office of Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu is set to speak with Trump on Friday.
“So far, Iran has not wanted to be drawn into a direct military conflict with the US, which would be an extremely risky undertaking,” said Iran expert Mahmoudian.
To destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel would need more advanced weaponry that only the US would be able to provide.
If this were to occur, Iranian retaliation would likely also target US facilities in the region, which could further destabilize the tense situation in the Middle East.
What Comes Next?
If recent history is any indicator, this exchange will simply mark another chapter in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict stemming from the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel.
After Iran’s counterattack, the next move belongs to Israel. It is likely that Israel will strike again, as predicted by President Trump, but the length of the current back-and-forth is wildly unpredictable. It is unlikely that either side is interested in letting this expand into a Major Regional Conflict by drawing the US into the fight.
The biggest impact from the current exchange is that talks between US and Iranian officials on a new nuclear agreement, planned for October 15 in Oman, have been indefinitely suspended in the wake of these attacks.
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